It got a bit cold in some parts of Poland last week, after Russian energy company Gazprom cut off natural gas supplies because of Poland’s refusal to pay for gas in rubles, as they also did to Bulgaria.
In Poland, at least, the extent of the problem was limited. Only about ten administrative districts in the country were dependent on Russian gas for heating. Poland does indeed rely heavily on Russia for its natural gas, with about 40% coming from several Russian companies, but only 9% of the country’s heating is powered by gas.
The move presaged a serious problem for Europe. While Russia carries out its deadly war in Ukraine, with pictures of dead babies and mothers being beamed out to the rest of the world by the embattled Ukrainians, Europe’s reliance on Russian energy has kept it from cutting off Moscow’s major source of funding entirely.
Russia has, in fact, doubled its energy revenue since the attack on Ukraine. Gas prices in Europe have gone up by 20%. And the Russians are starting to play hardball with the Europeans, with their demand for rubles rather than euros for their gas supplies. That would allow Russia to keep its economy moving smoothly; sanctions have made euros hard for it to spend or trade.
(The one European country that has gone along with the demand is Hungary, where the government has maintained a neutral stance in regard to Russia, while accepting Ukrainian refugees.)
And Poland is not the most vulnerable of the EU countries. Polish gas reserves were 76% full when Russia switched off the pipeline, whereas the average in Europe is just 30%. And Poland has made investments in liquid natural gas (LNG) facilities, which can receive trucks and tankers full of gas rather than relying on an overland pipeline. That allows LNG producers around the world—the US being a notable one—to ship natural gas and sideline Moscow to some extent. Poland already has capacity to take a quarter of its natural gas supply as LNG, and it is expanding that by another 10%.
But other countries have not prepared in the same way. One of the most influential in creating Europe’s current mess is the largest economy in Europe:
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