The Ending to
End All Endings
Few are the election nights that have ended on so tense a note. And if you think that conducting a poll with any semblance of accuracy is difficult, imagine being tasked with writing an article about an ongoing election using outrageously flawed data to determine results that no one will accept for a readership that will have the advantage of being at least two days into the future!
As of right now, it’s not over for Trump. It’s not over for Biden. And it may never be over for their supporters. I imagine that for a good 48% of the populace, the results will never be accepted as legitimate.
The silver lining for Trump, should all else fail, is that he would be able to get an early start on his 2024 campaign. (Another silver lining in a potential defeat is that he’ll never feel as humiliated in defeat as statistician Nate Silver must feel even in victory.)
The good news for everyone else is that as long as we find ourselves in limbo, the protesters and looters will probably stand down. After all, should the government end up careening towards socialism, these folks (93% of whom are peaceful) will be able to get all the stuff they would have otherwise looted directly from Uncle Sam.
Should Biden’s victory become official, be warned: Two months from now you’ll have to start wearing your masks again.
Okay, Now What?
If there’s one thing I’ve been saying all along about Trump’s chances it’s that the only way he could pull it off would be as the underdog, and I cannot imagine a greater underdog than Trump right now—at least as we go to print.
The question is, what’s his pathway to victory? With the totals swinging in Biden’s favor in nearly all the races yet to be called, the president and his cadre of lawyers cannot expect to march into the Supreme Court with an attitude. Certain threshold requirements would have to be reached—for example, a margin of victory within .5%—which vary from state to state and aren’t clearly defined; the recount procedures are similarly dissimilar.
As of this moment, two senior Trump campaign officials have told Ami Magazine that they’re confident they’ll be able to trigger a recount in Michigan and Wisconsin, and that they’ll end up winning Pennsylvania and Nevada outright. In states where recounts are done, the campaign can petition the Supreme Court to settle any disputes that arise, and the DOJ would ostensibly have greater flexibility in investigating the possibility of fraud or suppression.
Much remains to be seen. But isn’t it funny how Florida has suddenly become a role model for effective ballot counting?
The Democrats face a number of pitfalls in the days ahead, should serious challenges find their way to the courts, and we’re already seeing some of those seeds starting to germinate. The first is what I call the “disparate desperation deficit.” From the very beginning, the Democrats failed to display the same tenacity and sheer force of will as Trump.
Compare Biden’s timid midnight address in a Delaware parking lot with his hackneyed declaration of “let’s allow the system to run its course” to Trump’s fierce battle cry of “victory at all costs” before a maskless assembly of warriors in the East Room of the White House.
For many on Trump’s side, rhetoric like “we won this election” and “this is a fraud on the American public” indicated a desperation that inspired them to preempt a victory call as premature as Biden’s bedtime. For those on Biden’s side, comments like “we believe we’re on the right track to win” and “it ain’t over until every vote is counted” only reinforced a feeling of desperation as premature as their opponent’s allegation of victory.